Top level objectives
- Improving long range forecast skill for hazardous weather and climate events: by innovative representation of weather and climatic extremes, process-oriented diagnostic of weather systems in observations and climate simulations, and establishment of their links to Arctic changes and dominant climate variability modes.
- Enhancing the predictive capacity beyond seasons in the Arctic and the Northern Hemisphere: by improved representation of the oceanic impacts on sea-ice formation and melting, by synthesising observations, assessing model performance, better representing northward propagating oceanic heat anomalies in the Atlantic and Pacific, and by quantifying the impact of Greenland Ice Sheet melting.
- Quantifying the impact of recent rapid changes in the Arctic on Northern Hemisphere climate and weather extremes: by performing coordinated multi-model sensitivity experiments with atmospheric and climate models and assessing their ability to represent the observed changes, and by disentangling the effect of Arctic sea-ice retreat from the influence of the main modes of climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere.
- Improving the description of key processes controlling the impact of the polar amplification of global warming in prediction systems: through skilful simulation of the stable Arctic atmospheric planetary boundary layer, implementing the effects of varying runoff into the Arctic, and establishing the impact of increasing horizontal and vertical model resolution, including in the stratosphere, needed to improve predictive skills.
- Optimizing observational systems for predictions: by delivering an optimized oceanic monitoring system based on an integrated understanding of low latitude drivers of Arctic change, and by assessing its suitability and benefit for initializing climate predictions, with a focus on recent climatic extremes.
- Reducing and evaluating the uncertainty in prediction systems: through innovative initialization techniques, by facilitating the uptake of new Earth Observations, and by assessing influences on Arctic cryosphere changes.
- Fostering the capacity of key stakeholders to adapt and respond to climate change and boosting their economic growth: by developing and delivering valuated climate services.
- Transferring knowledge to a wide range of interested key stakeholders: by engaging with the scientific community, business actors, policy and decision makers, indigenous communities, and the not-for-profit sector in a dialogue allowing exploitation of our results, and providing free and open access and re-use of all data.