Scenarios for the Russian Arctic

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We developed together with stakeholders a set of complex scenarios for the Yamal region in Arctic Russia, and the scenarios were refined and stakeholders learned how to use them in their decision-making. At the final workshop in the “Yamal 2040” series, stakeholders together with Blue-Action scientists developed strategic options how to deal with challenges and opportunities upcoming in the future.

A new booklet is now available showcasing the scenarios through infographics: please look here.


The Arctic is facing unprecedented environmental change as temperatures in the region continue to increase twice as fast as the global average. As sea ice retreats, Arctic resources and waterways become increasingly accessible, representing not only opportunities, but also risks for local and international stakeholders.

This case study focused in the Yamal region of Russia, characterized by fragile ecosystems, a harsh climate, and extreme weather. Large-scale economic projects must be assessed for their capability to provide local economic benefit without causing harm to local ecosystems, social and cultural livelihoods, and the global climate. Developing Arctic oil and gas resources is a highly contested issue among different stake- and rights-holder groups. Local economic development and international energy security needs must be balanced against the emission reduction ambitions of the Paris Agreement and considerable social and environmental risks for Arctic, and especially indigenous people.

Blue-Action has developed an information service producing forward-looking scenarios to better understand the risks and opportunities associated with development in the Arctic, with a particular focus on oil and gas extraction. Together with stakeholder groups, Blue-Action co-developed a suite of scenarios to describe possible futures for the Yamal-Nenets region in 2040, incorporating cutting edge climate predictions with environmental, social and cultural concerns, economic opportunities, and political and legal developments.


Vilena Valeeva, IASS
Elena Nikitina, IMEMO
Johannes Gabriel, Foresight Intelligence

Further information

Arctic stakeholder Map available in Zenodo
Environment scanning workshop and report summary available in Zenodo
Environment scanning workshop and report 2 available in Zenodo
Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the engagement of stakeholders available in Zenodo

Selected baseline prediction data

Baseline data selected by this case study

Version March 2020: data sources used for the development of the scenarios

Version March 2019 (outdated)

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