The workshop was held on 20-22 September 2021 as hybrid event (online, Copenhagen and Bergen).
Outcomes of the workshop:
Proceedings of the workshop now available! https://www.zenodo.org/record/5793263#.YcHfPMnMJhE
Cite as: Blue-Action project office. (2021). Proceedings of the Workshop: Multi-annual to Decadal Climate Predictability in the North Atlantic-Arctic Sector. Zenodo. doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5793263
The document contains the abstracts of all talks and posters, and points at the presentations/posters the authors were happy to share with the broader scientific community. It also contains the summary of the breakout session.
20 September 2021, Climadjust webinar
A parallel practical session, hosted by Climadjust, will focus on post-processing climate projections to adjust biases. It will be a hands-on session, where participants will be able to send their data in advance, work together with the Climadjust team, and present the results in the workshop.
For more detail son this workshop, please visit: http://climadjust.com/blog/workshop
For registration: https://survey.typeform.com/to/bugUG6m6
The Multi-annual to Decadal Climate Predictability in the North Atlantic-Arctic Sector workshop aims to foster scientific exchanges and collaborations on multi-annual to decadal climate predictability, including research on:
- climate predictability from interannual to multi-decadal timescales and our understanding of the associated physical processes and their representation by models
- improvement of dynamical prediction systems, and
- increasing need for actionable information dependent on skillful climate predictions.
1/ MECHANISMS AND PREDICTABILITY
This session aims to cover a wide range of scientific topics related to climate predictability from interannual to multi-decadal timescales, our understanding of the associated physical processes and their representation by models. Topics of specific interest include: AMOC and Arctic sea ice variability, coupled variability modes, internal versus externally forced variability, the role of the Gulf Stream SST front variability on the atmosphere and related feedbacks, extremes in the decadal timescale, and last but not least the overarching signal-to-noise problem.
- Katinka Bellomo, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), on “External forcing on Atlantic Multidecadal Variability”
- Elizabeth Maroon, University of Wisconsin (UW-Madison), on “The role of ocean as a source of decadal predictability and the prediction of the cold blob”
- Leon Hermanson, Met Office (UKMO), on “Limits of predictability and the signal-to-noise problem”
- Shoshiro Minobe, Hokkaido University (Hokudai), on “Air-sea interactions”
2/ ADVANCES IN MODEL & INITIALISATION
This session aims to cover a wide range of scientific topics related to the improvement of dynamical prediction systems. Topics of specific interest include: 1) use of advance data assimilation such as strongly coupled data assimilation and its combination with artificial intelligence to better handle the multi-scale variability modes and reduce model error, 2) use of improved modelling such as high resolution, improved parameterization, innovative modelling approaches, such as supermodelling and breakthroughs in the use of supercomputing platforms, and 3) use of novel observation networks to better constrain dynamical models.
- Terence O’Kane, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), on “Strongly coupled data assimilation, and combination of data assimilation and machine learning”
- Helene T. Hewitt, Met Office (UKMO), on “High resolution Earth System Modelling in decadal climate predictions”
- Francine J. Schevenhoven, University of Bergen & Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (UiB & BCCR), on “Supermodel for correcting model error”
- Shaoqing Zhang, Ocean University of China (OUC), on “Strongly coupled data assimilation and breakthrough in High Performance Computing use for very high resolution”
3/ APPLICATIONS & SERVICES
This session covers all topics related to the increasing need for actionable information dependent on skilful climate predictions. In particular, a new and important dimension opens ahead ready to benefit from the now-matured decadal predictions. Prototype climate services are being developed, while a universe of applications awaits to be born. A number of initiatives point in this direction, including the WMO Lead Centre for Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction and the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). Dealing with the above, this session aims at communicating best practices and protocols and discussing off-line prediction refinements and the needs and standards in the development of climate services and applications.
- Chiara Cagnazzo, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), on “Overview of C3S scope, progress and plans”
- Nick Dunstone, Met Office (UKMO), on “C3S_34c Prototype decadal climate services”
- Isadora Christel Jimenez, Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), on “What happens to the data after they are produced?”
- Mark Payne, Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), on “Marine climate services”
- Panos Athanasiadis, Foundation Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change
- Joan Ballester, Barcelona Institute for Global Health
- Francois Counillon, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center
- Fei Li, University of Bergen
- Gerard McCarthy, ICARUS, Maynooth University
- Juliette Mignot, LOCEAN-IPSL, Institut de recherche pour le développement
- Juan José Sáenz de la Torre, Predictia Intelligent Data Solutions
- Shuting Yang, Danish Meteorological Institute
- Noel Keenlyside, University of Bergen, Coordinator of Bjerknes Climate Prediction Unit
- Steffen Olsen, Danish Meteorological Institute, Coordinator of Blue-Action
- Daniela Matei, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Coordinator of ROADMAP
- Laura Jackson, UK Met Office, CLIVAR Atlantic Region Panel representative
- Dorotea Iovino, Foundation Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change, CLIVAR/CliC Northern Oceans Region Panel representative
This is an activity linked to the European Climate Modelling Cluster.
Blue-Action has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 727852 (https://blue-action.eu/)
The Bjerknes Climate Prediction Unit is co-funded by the Trond Mohn Foundation (https://bcpu.w.uib.no/).
ROADMAP is jointly funded by JPI Climate and JPI Oceans through the Next Generation Climate Science in Europe for Oceans Programme (http://www.jpi-climate.eu/joint-activities/joint-calls/CPILoud/ROADMAP).
CLIVAR endorses this workshop, which is an activity linked to the Climate Dynamics Panel, the Atlantic Region Panel and Northern Oceans Region Panel