Climate Predictions in the Atlantic-Arctic sector

The Workshop on Climate Prediction in the Atlantic-Arctic sector was jointly organised by the Bjerknes Climate Prediction Unit and the EU Climate Modelling Cluster on 5-7 June 2019 in Bergen (NO) and is considered the 2nd workshop of the EU Climate Modelling Cluster.


Key take-home messages for policy-makers and decision-makers

Climate prediction in the Atlantic and Arctic sector is reaching useful skill levels, and research indicates that there is great potential to further enhance prediction skill. The EU researchers are leading the field, and EU funded projects have contributed to this by helping unite European research.


Improving prediction skill requires improved understanding of key processes and development of new more resolved numerical models. Critical to this are sustained long-term observations of the ocean and new observations for validating the new models. Climate modellers need to provide feedback to the observational community on required data, through workshops and by working together in projects.


Massive investments are required to develop these new models, as developments in computing infrastructure now outpace development of numerical climate models. To cope with these new challenges the climate researchers need to adopt community models, developed by large-teams, with simulations analysed by the wider scientific community


Climate services based on seasonal to decadal prediction are demanded by stakeholders. The development of useful climate services requires strong interaction between climate researchers and stakeholder partners. Greater awareness among stakeholders of the potential benefits of climate services is required to further accelerate the field.



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